International Organization for Migration, the number of people displaced by the fighting more than doubled in one week to around 700,000, as of May 9. Sudan risks becoming another Libya-a seemingly endless civil war among foreign-supported factions. Threatening them with sanctions-as Risch’s statement insinuates-will further alienate the very allies needed to handle the crisis and reduce tensions. Jim Risch, for example, recently called on the administration “to sanction Generals Burhan and Hemetti” and “to curb the influence of external actors providing aid to the junta.” But Washington’s relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are already strained. On Capitol Hill, the prevailing opinion advocates sanctioning Sudan in hopes of forcing a democratic transition. The Emiratis, by contrast, tilt toward Hemeti, who hails from Darfur in the west and who controls the country’s gold mines, the profits from which sit, almost exclusively, in Emirati banks. Burhan helps Cairo manage the Nile conflict with Ethiopia and controls Port Sudan, a strategic prize in the conflict. The Egyptians are closer to Burhan, whose power base is in the north. It’s crucial to keep in mind that the regional political context-and the fallout from further instability-reaches far into the Middle East. Both men, like most Sudanese, are Arabic speakers, just as the primary external actors-Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates-are Arab countries.
The country is split between two rival commanders: Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemeti,” a powerful general from western Sudan and the leader of the Rapid Support Forces. Since independence in 1956, Sudan has struggled with autocracy and civil wars-and is still recovering from a brutal dictatorship. The unfortunate truth is that there are no democrats or pacifists in Sudan. For its part, the Biden team is wise to check its impulse to promote democracy for now and support Riyadh’s efforts to prevent its maritime neighbor from descending into chaos. That’s understandable: Even if it were a model democracy, Saudi Arabia would have more immediate priorities, including preventing a Sudanese civil war and, more generally, stabilizing the Red Sea region. When violence first erupted in Sudan last month, Blinken expressed concern that the power struggle was going to undermine “efforts to restore Sudan’s democratic transition.” Saudi mediation will not address Blinken’s concern about democracy. and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia welcome the start of pre-negotiation talks between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Jeddah.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on May 5: “The U.S.
It therefore raised some eyebrows when U.S. No one can accuse the Biden administration of being overly generous with praise for Saudi Arabia.
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